2026 has been one of the most disruptive years for shipping in decades. Conflict involving Iran has hit the two sea lanes that matter most to UK importers buying from Asia: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Here's where things stand and what it means for your shipments.
What happened
- Late February: after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed. Ships were attacked, mines were reported, and insurers withdrew cover. Hundreds of ships were stranded inside the Gulf.
- Red Sea: the Houthis announced they would resume attacks on commercial shipping. Carriers that had been planning a return to the Suez Canal diverted around the Cape of Good Hope again.
- Through the summer: a series of ceasefires and talks came and went, with the strait closing again in June and July.
- September: some carriers began routing selected Asia–Europe services back through Suez, but US maritime authorities reported renewed Houthi attacks in late September.
What it means for routes and transit times
Asia to the UK via the Cape. Going around Africa instead of through Suez adds roughly 7 to 14 days to Asia–North Europe sailings. For shipments from Bangladesh, China and India, that's the difference between a five-week and a seven-week transit.
A mixed picture. Some lines have partially returned to Suez on certain services; others haven't returned at all. Two containers from the same port, on different lines, can now take very different routes and times.
Gulf ports. Cargo to and from Jebel Ali, Dammam and other Gulf ports has faced the worst of it, with delays, schedule changes and war-risk surcharges.
What it means for costs
- Freight rates spiked earlier in the year. By September, Asia–Europe spot rates were easing as capacity returned, but they remain volatile.
- Surcharges: expect war-risk, emergency and contingency surcharges on affected lanes, often at short notice.
- Fuel: oil prices swung sharply, passing $100 a barrel in March. Bunker surcharges follow fuel prices.
- Insurance: war-risk premiums for vessels have risen several times over, and that cost works its way into freight.
Five ways to protect your supply chain
- Build in more time. Plan for the Cape routing even if your carrier is using Suez today. Order earlier for seasonal stock.
- Get all-in quotes. Ask for the surcharges up front, and how long the rate is valid.
- Insure your cargo. When ships are attacked or diverted, general average can be declared, and cargo owners must contribute to the costs before their goods are released. Cargo insurance covers this. See our article on marine cargo insurance.
- Keep a buffer of stock on fast-selling lines.
- Stay in touch with your forwarder. Routes are changing week to week. We tell our customers when a sailing changes, before it affects them.
Where we stand
We're watching every sailing on our lanes and working with carriers on both routings. If you're worried about a shipment, or planning your next one, call us and we'll tell you honestly what to expect.
Sources: Lloyd's List, US Maritime Administration advisories, Drewry World Container Index, and carrier announcements. Correct as of early October 2026. The situation changes quickly.